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Autor	Malgorzata Just
Tytuł	TRANSFER OF EXTREME RISK BETWEEN SELECTED EU WHEAT MARKETS
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Słowa kluczowe	spillover effect, Granger causality in risk, value at risk, wheat prices
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Abstrakt	The aim of this study was to analyse the transfer of extreme price risk between selected EU milling wheat markets in the years 2005–2015. Extreme price risk (value at risk) was estimated using the ARMA-GARCH- -EVT models. In turn, the risk transfer phenomenon was identified using the Granger causality in risk test according to Cheung and Ng, the Granger test in relation to logarithmic price increments exceeding values at risk and the quotient of these increments and values at risk. Results of these tests indicate the effect of extreme price risk transfer on the EU milling wheat markets in the years 2005–2015. The market from which the risk was most frequently transferred was the wheat market in France, while the wheat markets in Poland and in Germany were those, onto which the risk was most frequently transferred.
Abstract
Cytowanie	Just M.
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Pełny tekst	ESARE_2018_n2_s216.pdf

Autor	Małgorzata Just
Tytuł	Porównanie metod szacowania wartości zagrożonej na rynku metali szlachetnych
Title	The Comparison of Methods of Estimating Value at Risk on the Precious Metals Market
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Abstract	The aim of this work is to compare methods of estimating Value at Risk of precious metals which are quoted on the London Metal Exchange in the period from beginning 2007 to the end of April 2012. There were analyzed five methods: historical simulation, variance-covariance approach, Monte Carlo simulation, Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), RiskMetrics. This models proved to be useful in the precious metals market. They allow for proper estimation of Value at Risk in the most turbulent periods in commodity markets.
Cytowanie	Just M. (2012) Porównanie metod szacowania wartości zagrożonej na rynku metali szlachetnych.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 96: 181-193
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2012_n96_s181.pdf

Autor	Monika Krawiec
Tytuł	Analiza wpływu metody oszacowania zmienności historycznej na przewidywane ceny zbóż w modelu dwumianowym
Title	AN ANALYSIS IMPACT OF HISTORICAL VOLATILITY ESTIMATION METHOD ON PREDICTED GRAIN PRICES IN THE BINOMIAL MODEL
Słowa kluczowe	zmienność historyczna, drzewo dwumianowe, przewidywane ceny zbóż
Key words	historical volatility, binomial tree, predicted grain prices
Abstrakt	Zmienność jest podstawowym parametrem, wykorzystywanym przy szacowaniu wartości narażonej na ryzyko, optymalizacji portfela i wycenie opcji. Istnieje wiele metod wyznaczania zmienności. Do najpopularniejszych należą odchylenie standardowe, procedura EWMA i modele GARCH (p, q). Obliczenia wykonywane każdą z wymienionych metod mogą dawać odmienne wyniki. Celem artykułu jest ocena wpływu zmienności, w zależności od przyjętej metody szacowania, na przewidywane ceny zbóż otrzymywane w modelu dwumianowym. Badaniem objęto ceny zbóż w Polsce w okresie od 27.12.2004 do 25.04.2010 roku.
Abstract	Volatility is the basic parameter used to calculate value at risk, to optimize portfolio or to evaluate options. There are several methods to estimate the volatility. The most popular are following: standard deviation, EWMA and GARCH (p,q) concepts. Each of them may provide different results. The aim of the paper is to asses the impact of volatility on predicted grain prices in the binomial model with respect to the method of volatility estimation. The research focuses on grain prices in Poland and covers the period from 27.12.2004 to 25.04.2010.
Cytowanie	Krawiec M. (2011) Analiza wpływu metody oszacowania zmienności historycznej na przewidywane ceny zbóż w modelu dwumianowym .Roczniki Nauk Rolniczych, Seria G, t. 98, z. 1: 40-46
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Pełny tekst	RNR_2011_n1_s40.pdf

Autor	Ewa Krawczyk
Tytuł	Zastosowanie modelu ryzyka Value at Risk (VaR) opartego na metodzie Monte Carlo do rynku nieruchomości
Title	Using Value at Risk (VaR) Model Based on Monte Carlo Method on Property Market
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Abstract	Value at Risk – the method emerged several years ago that measures potential loss at a given confidence level. The method is undergoing continous improvment, finding new use in financial institutions. Investment briefcase management is inseparably connected with risk mamagement – process succured today with risk models. Presented attempt of enforcing specialized tool for measuring defined risk for separeted risk on property market analysis gives following remarks: 1. In the situation of considerable growth of investition on property market, which is financed mainly from bank infestations, there is need to make out risk models which describes market segment behaviour and let to limit possible loss. The loss caused by overoptimistic predictions and wrong costeffectiveness calculation. 2. Well-known and used at financial market risk models are great tools to connect both segments of market – financial and objective – and for empiric verification including investment projects. 3. VaR model may be used for the needs of defined risk of separeted investment project, which is characterized by indicator of profitability (NP), but obtained results should be treatened with limited confidence
Cytowanie	Krawczyk E. (2006) Zastosowanie modelu ryzyka Value at Risk (VaR) opartego na metodzie Monte Carlo do rynku nieruchomości.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 58: 117-133
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2006_n58_s117.pdf

Autor	Ewa Krawczyk
Tytuł	Zastosowanie metody kowariancji do określenia ryzyka na rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych
Title	Application of Covariance Method for Risk Assessing on the Commercial Real Estate Market
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Abstract	The Value at Risk model allows answering the base question asked by investor. How much money could be lost with given financial resources involved into given project, in fixed time and fixed risk preference The covariance method used to estimate VaR is static model, but analytic manner of computing allows, after essential analysis, to determine value at risk relatively clearly and quickly. Presented attempt of initiating tool to analyzing quantified risk of investment on real estate market, specialized for capital market, gives observations: a) in the situation of significant growth of investments on real estate market, financed mainly by banking institutions, there is necessity to work out risk models for this market segment, allowing to limit excessive losses caused by too optimistic prices and inappropriate calculations of the effectiveness of the investment, b) well known and used risk models for capital market are basics for connection the both market segments - capital and real - and empirical verification, including investing projects, c) VaR model can be used for determining quantified risk of an investing project, characterized by profitability ratio Net Present Value, but received results should be treated with limited confidence.
Cytowanie	Krawczyk E. (2005) Zastosowanie metody kowariancji do określenia ryzyka na rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych.Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW - Ekonomika i Organizacja Gospodarki Żywnościowej, nr 55: 127-148
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Pełny tekst	EIOGZ_2005_n55_s127.pdf